LESSON 05
Learn what we mean by whole-brain thinking, where it comes from and why it is so important to trend management.
Topics
- How to see the full picture
- Rethinking human decision making
- A multidimensional model
- Developing critical thinking
- Cognitive bias
Course Progress
Seeing the full picture
A key assumption that took root during the 20th century – especially in economics – was that people base their decisions on rational judgment, thinking about long-term goals. Subsequent research has challenged this idea. Now we understand that emotions and intuition play a major role in decision-making, but there is still a tendency for business and society to focus only on quantitative and data driven findings.
“We now know people do not
physically process information using the left
or the right brain in isolation, but it is a
metaphor for our dominant thinking styles.”
The Trend Management Toolkit – A Practical Guide to the Future by Anne Lise Kjaer (2014)
Very often, the writing is on the wall before seismic change occurs. We simply need to tune into the vibrations of our universe. This means that alongside the gathering of data and insight to give us rational knowledge, we must develop our intuition to enable us to predict and develop strategies for change. We also need to consider the core purpose of trend forecasting in order to benefit from the process. To make it meaningful, it needs to encompass an analytic framework as well as an intuitive vision of possible events. This will help us see the full picture.
Kjaer Global’s multidimensional thinking model is a whole-brain approach set in a 4P framework
“It’s by logic we prove,
but by intuition we discover.
To know how to criticize is good,
to know how to create is better.”
Henri Poincaré – French mathematician
Human decision making and multidimensional thinking
While it is proven that we do not physically process information using the left or the right brain in isolation, it is a useful shorthand description for the differences in thinking styles that characterise people. Rational (left-brain) thinking style revolves around the details of a challenge, helping us to analyse and keep a focus on the here and now. However, we now understand the importance of so-called right-brain thinking, which is characterised by creative, intuitive and visionary processes. This allows us to think out of the box and form a more holistic, long-term view.
In addition, neuroscience has moved us one step further in understanding how brains work, pointing to creative problem solving and visioning as a complex collaboration between both halves of the brain. In short, we need whole-brain thinking to achieve the best results both now and for the future. Nurturing and training complex whole-brain functionality makes it easier to comprehend the details, see the big picture, dream up new disruptive ideas or imagine yourself, your organisation or the world in the future.
“The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and
the rational mind is a faithful servant.”
Albert Einstein – Theoretical physicist
LISTEN
THINK 05 Whole-brain thinking (audio 6:15)
There are various futurist thinking styles – we deep-dive into this in the WORK module
Critical thinking, analysis and creativity
Trend management is organised around whole-brain thinking processes, structuring our thoughts and ideas about what might happen in the future while allowing for critical thinking, analysis and creativity. It provides us with a deeper awareness of the drivers influencing society, our specific business sector and people’s behaviour and values within this ecosystem. Critical thinking about the future is a skill that can be cultivated when we choose to engage whole-brain approaches and methodologies.
Understanding trends to anticipate the future is a skill that can be developed and refined over time. It starts by making yourself familiar with the multidimensional thinking model; this engages a whole-brain approach to trend mapping. These concepts are embodied in the Kjaer Global model. We will speak about the multidimensional thinking model in-depth later and discuss how it works to activate a whole-brain approach in research and scenario planning.
ESSENTIAL READING
Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman
Why is there more chance we’ll believe something if it’s in a bold typeface? Why are judges more likely to deny parole before lunch? Why do we assume a good-looking person will be more competent?
The answer lies in the two ways we make choices: fast, intuitive thinking, and slow, rational thinking.
Kahneman’s book reveals how our minds are tripped up by error and prejudice – even when we think we are being logical.
BONUS INFO: The two systems of our brain
Daniel Kahneman is one of the world’s most influential psychologist. Based on empirical research, he figured out how we can notice when we are not thinking rationally.
That knowledge gives us the choice to think ‘SLOW’ – ignore uninformed intuition and notional risks – when we decide we really need to get something right.
SYSTEM 1: FAST Thinking (right brain)
• Attribute: intuitive, unconscious, automatic
• Without control or self-awareness; “what you see is all there is.”
• Role: assess the situation and deliver updates
• Makes up 98% of our thinking
SYSTEM 2: SLOW Thinking(left brain)
• Attribute: rational, deliberate and conscious
• With control or self-awareness, logical and skeptical
• Role: seeks new or missing information, makes decisions
• Makes up 2% of our thinking
WATCH
Nobel laureate and father of behavioural economics talks about the cognitive biases that affect our decision-making, a topic explored in his book.
BONUS INFO: Cognitive bias in brief
A cognitive bias is a strong, preconceived judgement of a person, a concept or a situation, based on prior experience or information we think we have. A bias serve as a mental shortcut to speed up the process of information. This was helpful when our ancestors were under threat from wild animals or rivalling tribes and in need of making snap decisions.
Cognitive biases are systematic errors in our thinking, which originate from our subjective observations, ideas and points of view. There are many kinds of cognitive biases – as shown in the Cognitive Bias Codex. They influence individuals differently, but what they have in common is that they lead to judgment and decision-making that deviates from rational objectivity. In short, they affect how we think and behave, as well as our decision-making process.
BONUS READ: Trend Mapping: past, present and future
For far too long, banked on logical and linear thinking to the exclusion of creativity and intuition. As mathematician Henri Poincaré once pointed out: “It is by logic that we prove, but by intuition that we discover. To know how to criticize is good, to know how to create is better.” Emerging micro trends barely visible today might become critically important to tomorrow’s worldview and great innovations.
In this context, trend management informs our thoughts and ideas about what might happen by giving us a deeper awareness of the change drivers influencing society, our specific business sector, and people’s behavior and values within this ecosystem. The most crucial activity in trend management is the ability to become attuned to shifts and changes, and the way to develop a full and rounded view of our environment is by exploring a broad and layered landscape of diverse drivers.
Continue reading… The Trend Management Toolkit
TEST YOUR KNOWLEDGE: Whole-brain Thinking
In the next lesson…
we explore the power of intuition and intelligent reduction as tools for sense-making.