LESSON 06
How can we make knowledge meaningful? We explore how we can use intuition and intelligent reduction to connect the dots and extract meaningful insights from complexity.
Topics
- Sensemaking
- Creativity and informed intuition
- Models of reasoning
- Occam’s razor
- The futurist manifesto
- Course outro
Course Progress
Knowledge, experience and sensemaking
Trend management is a system developed for observing trends in a wider context and studying their impact on human behaviour and needs. Identifying key drivers and trends is a process of connecting the dots in a meaningful framework to make sense out of complex and, at times, contradictory elements.
But we can only connect the dots we have spotted – so a crucial futurist skill is the power of observation, as this leads to informed intuition. Very much like muscles, the more you use your skills as an observer, the stronger and more and agile they become.
It is through sound observation that we spot trends. Our intuition comes into play when we connect and reconnect the dots to make sense out of them and tell interesting stories about the future. As you practice your powers of observation, you develop what we call informed intuition and can apply it to spot weak signals and patterns that form a trend.
“Creativity is just connecting things”
Steve Jobs, Wired Magazine (1996)
LISTEN
THINK 06 Connecting the dots (audio 06:55)
WATCH
In this TED talk designer Tim Brown talks about the powerful relationship between creative thinking and play. Many examples you can try at home (and one that maybe you shouldn’t).
Creativity and informed intuition
Knowledge alone is not useful unless we can make connections between what we know and what we see and feel. In a Wired interview from 1996, Steve Jobs said it well: “Creativity is just connecting things. When you ask creative people how they did something, they feel a little guilty because they didn’t really do it, they just saw something.” That’s because they were able to connect experiences they’ve had and synthesize new things.
To innovate from what you know, you have to take your knowledge one step further and apply inspired thinking and creativity, combining and connecting the dots in new ways. This leap is also what we call informed intuition. But you can’t be creative or use informed intuition until you understand the how and why of connecting the dots. This is explained visually in the diagram: Knowledge, Experience and Creativity.
The diagram above makes a clear point that knowledge alone is not useful
ESSENTIAL READ
Sensemaking: The Power of the Humanities in the Age of the Algorithm by Christian Madsbjerg
Sensemaking argues that our fixation with data often masks deficiencies. Blind devotion to number crunching imperils our businesses, our educations, our governments, and our life savings.
Many companies have lost touch with the humanity of their customers and arts-based skills. Some of today’s biggest success stories stem not from ‘quant’ thinking but from deep, nuanced engagement with culture, language, and history.
A model of reasoning
Another useful visual of the key principle of a futurist mindset is embodied in the illustration, which demonstrates the relationship between evidence, theories, and reasoning as applied in the natural sciences and other academic disciplines. The principle is also referred to as Occam’s Razor, and you can download our version here at the Kjaer Academy. The fewer assumptions we have to make, the more likely the theory.
There is often no need to complicate theories
WATCH
Changemaker Culture. In this TEDx talk Anne Lise explores why curiosity and creativity are key leadership skills and why a purpose-driven vision matters.
TEDx: The Power of One
DOWNLOAD
BONUS INFO: The law of simplicity
Occam’s razor, also spelled Ockham’s razor, is called the law of economy or law of parsimony. This principle stated by the 13th century scholastic philosopher William of Ockham (1285–1347) was that pluralitas non est ponenda sine necessitate, “plurality should not be posited without necessity.”
The principle gives precedence to simplicity: of two competing theories, the simpler explanation of an entity is to be preferred. The principle is also expressed as “Entities are not to be multiplied beyond necessity.”
TEDx: The Power of One script
DOWNLOAD
The Futurist Manifesto
The Futurist Manifesto sums up the top-lines and key learnings from the THINK module. This is your guide to stay focused and engaged in new thinking for the future.
The Futurist Manifesto
DOWNLOAD
TEST YOUR KNOWLEDGE: Sensemaking and Connecting the Dots
WORK syllabus
DOWNLOAD
CONGRATULATIONS!
You have now completed the THINK module. What you have learned is the essential thinking needed to Think Like a Futurist. You are now ready to join us in the WORK and PLAY modules.
Stay inspired and future wise!
WATCH
How to Think like a Futurist and key learnings. The Futurist Manifesto and what to expect in the next module.
BONUS
Why not listen to the complete THINK module on the go? It’s a great way to learn and quickly refresh your futurist thinking skills before you deep dive into the next module.
NEXT UP… WORK like a futurist
Now that you are familiar with the THINK module – the routines, habits, skills and the futurist thinking, and not least your own thinking style – it’s time to move on to the WORK module. Here we will explore the origins of futurology, the work of the futurist and how we can look to the past and present to understand the future.
Before you do so, please take a short break. Have a hot drink or a glass of water or, even better, go for a brisk walk or meditate for 10 minutes to reflect on what you are taking away from the THINK module of the Kjaer Academy foundation course.